Local Business Sentiment: Cautious and Concerned

Our latest poll sheds light on the economic outlook, workforce trends, and inflation expectations among local businesses, and the results paint a picture of caution and some concern about what’s to come.

• Hiring Expectations:

  • A clear majority (75%) of respondents expect fewer than 20% of local businesses to grow their workforce in the next year. Only 17% anticipate a moderate expansion (20–40% of businesses hiring), and just 7% believe more than 60% of businesses will add to their teams. This contrasts with a national survey by the U.S. Chamber, where 37% of businesses plan to hire, and only 5% expect to reduce their workforce. Locally, hiring expectations appear notably more conservative.

• Inflation Outlook:

  • When it comes to inflation, optimism is hard to come by. A significant 44% of local business leaders expect inflation to rise above 4% over the next 12 months. Only 19% believe inflation will remain at or below 2%. This outlook is more cautious than national projections, with the Cleveland Fed’s survey estimating inflation at 3.2%, and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey forecasting 4.3%.

• Economic Conditions:

  • Looking at the broader local economy, 45% of respondents expect conditions to stay the same in the next six months, while 40% foresee a downturn, and just 15% are hopeful for improvement. By comparison, the U.S. Chamber’s survey shows 37% of businesses viewing their local economies as healthy, and 29% feeling optimistic about the national economy.

Altogether, the local outlook reflects a wait-and-see approach grounded in realism and caution, with inflation and limited workforce growth topping the list of concerns.